Sports betting experts often make their picks by betting against a certain team, instead of necessarily betting for the team they think is going to win. In other words, sometimes when you know a team is terrible, you can make money sports betting just by betting against the terrible team.
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Here’s a perfect example. Take a look at my analysis of the Southern Miss vs. Memphis NCAA college football game:
Southern Miss -7 at Memphis
This game matches up Southern Miss, 4-4 SU, against a very bad Memphis team that’s gone 1-7 this season, with their only win coming against an equally bad Chattanooga team way back in week 2. That puts Memphis in the middle of a 6 game losing streak, while Southern Miss isn’t doing much better, losing 3 of their last four.
But here’s the key to this game. Southern Miss simply can’t move the ball when they’re over-matched. In their 4 losses they’ve scored only 7,6,6, and 17 points. However, when they’re playing teams they can push around, they have the offense to put points on the board. In their 4 wins, Southern Miss has scored 45, 37, 31, and 19 points.
Meanwhile, Memphis has given up over 35 points in 5 of their last 6 games, and 26 in their game against Arkansas St. This tells me that Southern Miss is likely to put up a lot of points tonight.
Look for Southern Miss to simply over-power Memphis and put up a lot of points tonight, while holding Memphis’ offense to under 20 points. Bottom line is that I would expect Southern Miss to win this win going away, 31-17, easily covering the 7 point line.
So what was the final score? Southern Miss won 42-21, easily beating the 7 point spread.
How much money do you think sports betting pros made on this game simply by recognizing how bad a team Memphis was?
There’s often no need to try to figure out who’s going to win the close match-ups. People who aren’t good at sports betting often get suckered into trying to figure out who’s going to win tight games, like the Super Bowl.
When you bet on a game where you know one team is terrible, you already know that the better team is going to win -it’s just by a matter of how much they’ll win by.
David James is one of the world’s foremost sports handicappers. Not only does James have an uncanny knack for knowing who to bet on, but he also is one of the best at providing in depth explanations and statistics showing exactly why each pick meets his criteria. Click on this link if you would like to learn how to be successful at Sports Betting.
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