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Horse Racing's Little White Lie

"He really loves this racecourse and always runs well".

How often do we hear this from trainers around the racing world? But, are we genuinely to believe that a horse, an animal not known for particularly high levels of intelligence, actually arrives at a racecourse where it has been just a few times in the past 2 or 3 years and recognising the scenery, finds something it likes about it, and then goes on to run an excellent race.

To my mind, this is quite simply nonsense. There is nothing about ONE particular course or track that can possibly have any sort of positive effect upon a horse's performance.

Often, it is nothing more than a coincidence when you see a horse running good races at a certain track. Each year there are thousands of horses in training. It is not statistically significant, or even surprising, that for a number of horses a cluster of good runs might accumulate at a particular racetrack.

This effect is of course further highlighted when the trainer decides that a horse likes a certain course. The animal will then on many occasions be trained specifically for a target at this apparently favoured track. It is not at all surprising that on the day of the race the horse that has been "trained to the last second" acquits itself well.

OK, so can we simply ignore previous course successes in our analysis of a horse race, merely saying that a combination of trainers' actions and coincidence have together, produced something which, although appearing relevant, is actually not?

Matters are rarely straightforward in horse racing and the answer unfortunately has to be both, yes, and no. Yes, I do firmly believe that individual course successes are not important, but if you see a horse constantly running well at a particular TYPE of track then you must give consideration to this.

In my view, the way that a horse is made-up physically can sometimes affect its preference for a type of racecourse. Some of these are very obvious. A small, compact type of horse will probably be well suited, compared to other runners, by a tight, turning track. A gangly, tall individual will prefer straight tracks or courses with easy turns.

Other factors may be less obvious. Some horses dislike running in big fields. In my experience these horses may do better on tight, turning tracks. The tight bends mean that that the horses tend to run one behind the other, perhaps only 2 wide on the track, in order to avoid giving away too much ground. The animal that is more at home in a small field will actually have the impression that this is what it is running in today, because there will not be other horses all around.

Keep a look out for patterns. Do compare types of tracks that a horse has run on, but also consider the impact that the racecourse might have on the manner in which the race is run and how a horse's apparent preferences fit in with this.

To conclude, next time you hear the trainer say "He loves it here" take this with a pinch of salt. But, DO have a look at the horse's form to see if a pattern emerges. IF there is no genuine trend than the horse's apparent good record at one particular racecourse may be of no relevance at all. The effect of this will be that the price of the horse will artificially and wrongly shorten and quite possibly create value betting opportunities on other runners.

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Gambling Article Source: http://www.eternalgambling.com/gambling

Richard Stone aka "The Crafty Fox" is a semi-professional bettor on horse racing. For more articles, reviews and winner finding tips to help you achieve betting success take a look at www.craftyfoxracing.com.

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